Ukuthengisa i-WMT nge-150% inzuzo-> Ndiyithenga iBBB njengesipho kwiKrisimesi

Inqaku elinomdla? Wabelana ngayo nabahlobo bakhe

WMT, ewe, kufuneka ndibubule. Iminyaka engapheliyo ye-8 kunye neentsuku ezimbalwa ezedlule kwafuneka ahambe kwiphothifoliyo yam. Ndiza sele ngokuya kuwo ixesha elithile, ukuba mhlawumbi konyaka okanye emibini, xa eyayibulindile nealam yokugqibela okucacileyo ukuba isizalwane eliboniswe nendlela ekuqhutywe ngayo ngaphambili ixabiso share mpilweni.
Ziziphi izizathu zolu? Ewe, kwakukho okwaneleyo. Yintoni na kum shank ngokupheleleyo xa ityala liphula umda othile. Lo ngumda weentlawulo ezimbini zonyaka. Ngokukhawuleza ukuba ndifike kufuphi nale metro, ndiza kuqala ukusebenzela okulandelayo. Xa ndiyisiwe, ndithengisa yonke into enayo. Kanye nje xa ixabiso lentengo kwiirhafu zonyaka lidlula i-45.
Emva kokuthenga i-2009, i-ROI yam ivukile ixesha elithile, kodwa ihlehla kuphela ukusuka kwi-2011. Andizange ndikwazi ukufumanisa izizathu zokuhla kwexesha elidlulileyo. Mhlawumbi inxulumene neemida ezihambelana nokuzuza kweempahla zabo. I-2011 yanda kancane kwaze kwaba yi-XNUMX kwaye ukususela ngoko baye behla. Ekupheleni kwe-Oktobha, i-2017 yayimangalisa, ngaphezu kwe-50% ngaphantsi kunokuba ndithenge i-stock. Andizi ukuba kwenzekani. Ukuba uzama ukugcina ubuncinane imali kunye neminye indlela engaqondakaliyo yokuyeka ukuhla kwehla ngenzuzo, eye yawela iminyaka embalwa. Kodwa ndivuyiswa gqitha. Yiloo nto inhlanhla ikakhulukazi ngexesha lokuthenga kwaye ndicinga ukuba kwakuyintlekele nangona xa kuthengisa. Abatyalomali, ngenxa yesizathu esingaziwa, baxabisa ishishini ngelixa nje ndifuna ukuyilahla. Yintoni enye oyifunayo?
Kodwa ndinenhlanhla ukuba ndilungele i-2008 ne-2009. Ndikwazi ukuthenga ubhekise wabhalwa ngexesha leminyaka ukuxhathisa phambi ntlekele, olubonwa kulo mfanekiso, endiya emkhenkceni imali ixesha elide ngaphandle japan engaphezulu okanye kamva emva kwentlekele 2008 kwaye oko kuya kuba kakhulu emva kwexesha.

BBBY kwaye apho kuvela khona impembelelo

Ndinomfundi onomdla apha ongithumelayo iingcebiso ezahlukeneyo ngeziganeko ezithakazelisayo. Asiyonto imbi kwaphela iingcebiso, kodwa kusoloko ekuchukumisayo nayiphi na into incinane esikhumbuza ukuba into efana usiba kunye kushishino, Ndithi kuye, "Mfana, oko bekuya kuba ukusuka ebubini." Abayi kuba yi-investment engalunganga, kodwa ekugqibeleni kwam inzala, xa ukuthenga izihloko ze-1-2 ngonyaka kufuneka ndikhethe ezininzi kwaye ucinge kakuhle ngento endiyikhethayo.
Kodwa ngeveki eveleleyo, wandithumela isihloko seBBBY, endikugijimayo kwiminyaka emininzi kwimpahla yesitokhwe njengempahla yokulinganisa imilinganiselo yam. Kodwa iminyaka, iwele phantsi kwoluhlu lwezolimo-mali, kodwa ngoku ndibukele kwakhona. Ndiyazi into endikhathazayo, ibe yindawo ephantsi. Ndinguwe Andithandi nje iinkampani ezisezantsi. Andiyithandi elinephepha uhlise kwishishini lakho kuba oko Ngumdlalo oyingozi phakathi ngokuphumelela kunye elahlekelwe yinto umgca entle kakhulu. Yonke into imele ilandele isithsaba sokugqibela, ingcangca into enokuyenza. Kuba ukwazi indlela ekuphathwa ngayo abathengi ukunganeliseki, abasebenzi bethutyana yabasebenzi kunye nabancedisi, kwaye yokugqibela kodwa okungakuncinananga kukuba ingxaki esi sicwangciso ngaphandle kwizitofu yemali evela ngaphandle ufinancovat yokugcina. elinephepha Low Andikuthandi nokuba ziintshaba zabo, ngubani yegusha yenkani olungenasiphelo umonde kunye ukuxhathisa, batshabalalisa imarike yonke iminyaka.

Iimida ezitshintshileyo azitshintshi kakhulu. Ngoko, kwimeko yam, ngokuqinisekileyo akuyi kuba yi-investment yangexesha elide endingayibamba iminyaka emininzi. Ngethuba elincinci masithi 5-10 ndivumelekile kwaye ndibe ngumngcipheko omncinci.



Kutheni benza njalo?

Ndicinga ukuba yisangulo esikhulu kunazo zonke endandibonile. Akunjalo Andiyiqondi isizathu sokuba benze oko benzayo. Ngenxa yokuba oku akunjalo ngokwenene. Le yintlawulo. Ezi zinto zihlala ziqhutywa ngokuqhubekayo okanye zifikeleleke xa inkampani ihluleka ukutshala imali engcono. Kodwa oku kufuneka kuhlale kunjalo kuphela xa izitokisi zingabizi. Ukuphindwa okuphindwe ngokuphindaphindiweyo kwenzelwe apha kuma-maximums.
Xa ndiqala ukubheka okufutshane malunga nefilosofi yokuhlengwa kwabo, ndafumanisa ukuba Andiye ndedwa, ngubani owakubona ezo zinto ezinkulu. Ndacinga ukuba kukho into ethile kuyo, kwaye njengoko kubonakala ngathi, kungekhona nje ukuba ndiyicinga ukukhululwa kwayo enye yeyona nto ndiyibonile.
Ale yonke into embi into entle. Nangona konke akwenzileyo, kusenjalo inqwaba enkulu yeempahla ezinokutsha ezingenakukunyanzelwa. Kwiminyaka eyi-5, bachitha i-6 billion billion. kwaye iminyaka yokugqibela ye-3 yayingama-4,5 billion. Njengoko i-capital capital manje ijikeleze i-3 ibhiliyoni, abanikazi abasele banyuke ngokuqinile kwinkampani. Kwaye ndifuna ukuba apha.

Oku akusikho uhlalutyo lobugcisa

Byly doby, kdy jsem se technické analýze dost věnoval. Nyní se na tu téměř padesátku knih ležících v banánovkách práší kdesi v komoře. Od té doby co jsem začal podnikat si občas vzpomenu na ta studentská léta, kdy jsem myslel, že zbohatnu na forexu a přečetl jsem vše, co se dalo. Právě teď jak dopisuji řádek mám pitomý úsměv na tváři, jak naivní jsem byl. Čítával jsem příběhy o úspěšných traderech, ale stále mi vrtalo hlavou, jak je možné, že jim stačí sledovat čárky pohybující se nahoru a dolu a hledat v nich zákonitosti, aniž by se věnovali nějaké podstatě. Aniž by za těmi čárkami viděli cokoliv víc .. např. samotnou firmu, komoditu, měnu a hledali odpovědi na to, proč se ty trhy chovají tak šíleně.
Andizange ndikulindele izinto ezinjalo kwinkampani yam. Ewe, ngamanye amaxesha ndijonga indlela izinto ezihamba ngayo, ndijonge kwiitshathi, mhlawumbi ndiza kuthi ... kakuhle, ngokuthe ngandlela-thile sithobekile, ngoko ndingalindela imali engaphezulu ngemali. Ewe, xa ndibafumani, andiyi kwitshathi kwaye ndingayigcwalisi ngamanqaku angenangqiqo, andiyikhangela iphantsi kabini, andizame ukuqagela xa umkhangeli uphenduka. Igrafu ephumela kuba yiphumo, kodwa ngokuqinisekileyo akusona isizathu.
Ngoko oko ndenzayo, ndiza kuqonda ukuba kwenzekani. Ndiyabona ukuba kulo nyaka, umzekelo, umonakalo omkhulu wenziwe ngaphezu kwamanye amaxesha, kwaye ndiyazibuza ukuba kukho into enokuyenza kunyaka ozayo. Ndiyazi ukuba ndibuyisela enye imali kwaye ndiya kubasusa entanyeni yam ngonyaka ozayo. Okanye undixelele ukuba kufuneka ndibuyisele kulo mthengisi ophelile ukuba andizange ndiwenze. Ngaba unokwenza okuthile malunga nalo? Kuthekani ukuba amantlambo am, ayenzeka ntoni xa ndizange ndihlawule? Ngaba abayi kuchitha imali ngonyaka ozayo? Ndihlala ndihlupheke mna kunye / okanye lonke icandelo lichaphazeleka kwaye kutheni le nto yenzekayo?
Ndixolele, kodwa Andikholelwa ukuba ndiya kufunda oku kwitshathi. Ngokuqinisekileyo, umntu akakwazi ukucinga ukuba xa ebona ukunganyangeki, ityati iye yavula umgangatho ongaphantsi kabini ukuba ngaphandle kokulawula nayiphi na inkampani kwatshintshile ukuba ibe ngcono, ngokukhawuleza njengoko ukujika kwedodi kujika yonke into kunye namaxabiso aqhube esibhakabhakeni? Kutheni?



Khangela i-BBBY. I-Tech madmen yayiza kujonga ishati kwaye ithi. Ewe, oku kulungile, jonga indlela ikhutshwe ngayo ukusuka kwiidola ezingamashumi amabini. Lo ngumda ocacileyo wengqondo! Ngoku kuya kuqinisekisa ukuxhatshazwa kweenyanga ezintathu, kwaye ke ukunyuka okunyukayo kuya kufakazela phantsi kwezantsi.
Ndicinga ukuba le ngcamango ibonakala iphosa. Oko ukwenza ngqo itshathi impilo ngokwasemzimbeni kabani nithi kuloo umntu osanda waphule kwiveki 40ti iavareji ukuze uya kuhamba naye kule minyaka izayo yenduli. Khawucinge ukuba kwakuya kubagqirha benza unyango lwangaphambili kwaye kuya kubakho ababenokwenza ubugcisa. Ngokusekelwe kwimbali yonyango, babeza kuxilongwa. Brrrrr. Ndiya kuzibeka kwiqela lokuqala.

Inyaniso kukuba, xa ezi freaks ziya kufumana ezininzi kwaye bayakwazi ukuphembelela ixabiso ubuvuvu nokutyhilwa engenangqondo ngokupheleleyo. Kodwa makhe sijonge kwitshati kwakhona. Kungaba yinto elungileyo yokuthenga-mhlawumbi. Mhlawumbi Ndiyayithanda ingcinga kwaye ngoku ahlale phambi iishaman igrafu armada efanayo abatshintshayo ixesha izakhelo okoko nje ibonisa umfanekiso ofuna ukubona. Abanye kufuneka ufunde iingcebiso labarhwebi ezahlukahlukeneyo, nto leyo kunjalo isekelwe mahlanu-amahlanu. Kodwa ukuba kukho iindululo ezinjalo ngesikhashana, andiyi kuba nomsindo.
Ngaphandle koko, andiyikuboni nxu lumene no 2008. Ngaliphi ixabiso lentsebenzo ngoku ndiyibona lisuka kwi-HI yi-75%. Ndiyabona ithuba lokuthenga izitokethi kwi-2013 kwikota yonyaka, kwaye ndifumana isabelo esikhulu kakhulu semali ngenxa yokukhulula ukuthengakunokuba ndiza kuphumelela i-2013.
Kwaye ke izabelo ziqale ukuhlawulwa? Ndiyakwamkela oku, ikhaya elincinci kum. Isabelo esikhulu, izabelo ezinkulu. Kwaye ukuba yinyani, ixesha elide, amakhulu eminyaka emva, sele ifikelele kwisigqibo sokuba izabelo zentengo ziba ngcono ngaphezu kwezabelo zezabelo ... iindaba ezilungileyo.

PE = 5

Kwaye ndilapha kule nyanga nqaku yangaphambili Wabhala ngokungafaki imali kulo nyaka. Akuzange kuthathe ixesha elide kwaye litshintshe. Akukho ndawo yokuqala engcono kunokuba uthenge isitishi ngenani lokuqala lokuxabisa i-20%, okanye ukuthenga ngokuphindwe kabini inzuzo yonyaka. Andikhumbuli nokuba ndithenga into enje.
Noko ke, yintoni enomdla kakhulu, ukuba ngoku ithengiswa ngenani leencwadi.
Xa ndilinganisa, ndikhetha ukujonga i-PE kodwa abanye abatyalo-mali bathetha ukulandela umlinganiselo we-P / S, kuba izihloko ze-stock with this pointer ephantsi zihlala zibalalisa izihloko nge-P / E ephantsi. Kule nyathelo, ixabiso li-0,25, oko kuthetha ukuba sithenga yonke i-dollar ye-1 yemali kwi-dollar ye-0,25. Izabelo ezingabandakanywanga yilabo abaxabiswayo phantsi kwe-2.
Kodwa ndenza Ndikhetha ukulandela izikhombisi ezingafumaneki esidlangalaleni kwaye ubani kufuneka abalele. Ezifana nomvuzo ngamnye ngenyanga. Oku kulula ukwenza, kulula ukucinga kwaye unganqunyulwa kuyo.
Zininzi izibonakaliso ezinjalo, ezingapapashwa kuyo yonke indawo, zifumaneka kwincwadi ethi "Uhlalutyo lwemali"Ngo-Adriana Knápková, u-Drahomíra Pavelková noPavel Šteker (ndithenga ngokuqhelekileyo kwi-Alze). Kwakhona, le ncwadi inokukhuthazwa ngumntu ukuba ahlaziye iimpawu zakhe ezingamnceda kangcono kwiinjongo zakhe.
Yisiphi isibonakaliso esihle endithethe ngalo? Ngoko, okokuqala, ndibuyela kwindlu yamagumbi. Ndimele ndihlawule imali eqhelekileyo kumgcini-sitolo. Ngenxa yokuba yinto nje ibhizinisi elincinci, yimali engaphezulu kwesilinganiso. Ndineendaba ezivela kwiingqungquthela ezifanayo njengoko aba bantu bahlawulelwa khona kwaye ngokwenene kube buhlungu. Kutheni kunjalo? Inxulumene nemveliso yomsebenzi. Inkampani iya kwizinto ezimbalwa ezingazange zikwazi ukuphelisa ngokuzenzekelayo.
Ngaphezu koko, asenzi amancinci amancinci. Akunjalo ukuba siyabacekisa, kodwa asikwazi. Nangona umsebenzi usebenza ngokuzenzekelayo, andisakwazi ukufumana indlela yokuthumela izinto ze-10ti ze-400ti kwixabiso elipheleleyo le-2Kč kunye nokuthunyelwa kwamahhala njengoko abakhuphisana nathi. Kwaye ngenxa yokuba asikwazi ukwenza oko, ngoko andiyi kukufumana nayiphi na indleko. Uyazi ukuba ndithetha nabalingani kunye nabaphiswano malunga nendlela yokwenza i-intanethi ye-biz. sonke sibheke kwaye sinokukhathazeka kakhulu kwaye uyazi ukuba kakhulu iindawo eziphantsi, umyalelo ophantsi kunye nokuthunyelwa kwamahhala. Sonke sizama ukusinda, kodwa uxinzelelo lukhulu. Ewe, njengoko sithetha, ndiyazi ukuba abanye baphatha inani elifanayo le-3-5x i-oda nenani elikhulu labantu, elona libi kakhulu kwaye ndiyazi ukuba ubuncinane isiqingatha somyinge. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-10-XNUMXx inokujika okuphezulu.
Kwaye ngoku ku-pointer yam intandokazi apho konke oku kuya kubonakala khona. Xa sithatha inzuzo yonyaka kwaye siyabelana ngenani leentloko eziyidale, siya kubelana kunye nabayishumi elinesibini, kwaye siya kufumana inamba ukusixelela ngokwaneleyo. (Ndiyiguqula kwiidola ukuya kwiikholeji). Yonke inkampani iyahluke, kodwa mhlawumbi esitolo, abantu benza inxalenye enkulu yeendleko kwaye, ngaphezu koko, ngaphandle kwabantu abakwaziyo. Yonke into endiyibhale kulo mbandela iza kuhlolwa kwaye ezinye izinto ezininzi ziya kuvela kuyo. Into ebalulekileyo kukuba inokuthi ichithwe ekubeni "igazini" nangona ngexesha lebhola okanye ukuba kukho umlotho wemali xa kwenzeka ingxaki. Kungenzeka ukubala oko kuza kwenzeka xa inkampani iyancipha imali engenayo ngesiqingatha, umzekelo, kunye neendleko azincitshiswa, nokuba kuya kufuneka ukuba ufikelele umvuzo wabantu okanye ude ubeke. Kwaye ukuba oko kwenzeka, abantu abambalwa banokuchaphazela ngokusemgangathweni ukusebenza komsebenzi kwixesha elizayo?
Kuyathakazelisa ukuthelekisa le ncwadana kwicandelo elinye. Lezo zigqithisi, ngamanye amaxesha zizonke malunga nokuhlelwa. Kuye ngaphandle kokuthi, ke, kwezo nkampani ezihambisa iimpahla zazo, phakathi kwezinye izinto, ngokusebenzisa ukuthengiswa kwemali, ezithengisa ngeemida eziphezulu kunye nemigangatho ephakamileyo ethengisa iilayisenisi. Ewe, umzekelo, iinkampani ezingafuneki ukuguquka, ukuphucula, ukuvuselela. Iindleko ezi zinto ziya kuba zilahlekile.
Ephakamileyo ijika kwixabiso lonke? UMtyholi uthathe!
I-BBBY, ndayiphonsa ngokukhawuleza kwinqanaba lokubala, kwaye ukuba ndiyithelekisa umphumo kunye nesitoko esithengiwe ngaphambili, ayikho ibhokhwe, iphantsi kwe-17 iwaka ngeenyanga, eya kuba malunga epholile kwinkampani yaseCzech, kodwa nantsi iphela. Kwaye ndabala kuphela abasebenzi bexesha elizeleyo.



Ngaphezulu

Ngoko silapha inzuzo nganye kwintloko ekupheleni, inkampani yesikweletu emaphethelweni, umda wee-marginal also edge. Ngenye yezotyalo-mali ezingozi kakhulu, kodwa ndibona ezinye ezinokuba khona kwi 5-10let horizont, ngoko mhlawumbi ayiyi kuhamba. Kwaye ukuba unikwe amathuba okuba unyaka mhle, ndiyakwazi ukukhaba ukukhaba.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kukho abambalwa abanikazi bamaziko kunye nabanye abafake izicelo kwiimali, ngoko ndicinga ukuba akukho buhlanyaintengisonjengokungathi abatyala-mali abancinci babengabanamaphepha.


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Inqaku elinomdla? Wabelana ngayo nabahlobo bakhe

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BeranisteStanleyToroMateyu Ababhali beengxelo zamuva
Bhlisa
zakutshanje endala lihle kakhulu
Xelela
Stanley
host
Stanley

Yongeza enye ibhondi kule nyathelo. Kwile leta yakutshanje kubaphathi-mali be-Vltava Fund, ekhokelela uDaniel Gladiš, uthetha ngale nkampani. njengomnye wabambalwa abaye babandezeleka kwaye baninzi babo xa bethengisa ngelahleko le-30%. Ndiyifunde kakhulu le ncwadi, kwaye iyimithombo yokuphefumlelwa kunye nomyalelo kum. Ndiyincoma ukuba ndifunde kubo bonke abacinga ngokugqithiseleyo malunga nexabiso lokutyalomali. I-BBBY iqalisa ukuthanda kumaxabiso malunga ne-20 $ :-)

Toro
host
Toro

Andiyena umhlalutyi, kodwa ngaba akunakwenzeka ukuba ube ngumcebisi we-privatization ngabaphathi? Umkhiqizo ophantsi, mhlawumbi ukwenziwa ngamabomu, ngentengo ephantsi yokuthenga. Ukuphuculwa kwemisebenzi kulandela ukulungiswa ngokukhawuleza nokuveliswa kwemveliso. Okanye ukhetho lwesibini apho inkampani iphela kwi-inertia kwaye ikwaphulo lokugqibela, kodwa loo nto ayiyi kuba yintengo enkulu.

Mateyu
host

Ha 🙂

Ndivuya. Kubonakala ngathi ndiyathumela into apho. Ekugqibeleni, ndiza kuhlawula.

Ndandithengela ukuthumela konke okanye ukulinda into ekubonayo.

Kodwa qiniseka ukuba awuwulandeli usuku ngalunye kwaye ujonge kabini ngonyaka. Akuyiyo 🙂

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